When ExxonMobil discovered vast oil reserves off the coast of Guyana in 2015, a new era began for the small South American country. Since its first production in 2019, Guyana has become the fastest-growing economy in the world, with a staggering increase in GDP, massive public investment and increasing foreign interest. But behind the impressive growth figures also lie deep social inequalities, environmental and governance risks, and a growing sense of alienation among ordinary Guyanese.
For Suriname, which is itself aiming for large-scale oil exploitation in Block 58, Guyana's experience offers a rich but complex blueprint. What can we learn - and what should we be vigilant about?
Guyana's Oil Bonanza in Figures
Since oil production began in December 2019, Guyana's economy has exploded. In 2022, GDP grew by a whopping 62.3%, followed by 33% in 2023 and an estimated 43.6% in 2024. The oil industry, accounting for more than 60% of GDP, is pumping 645,000 barrels daily, with a projected doubling to 1.2 million barrels by 2027.
National wealth also increased dramatically: per capita income went from $6,950 in 2020 to more than $20,000 in 2023. In 2024 it rises to $60,000 a jump that places Guyana among the richest countries in South America.
The Uneven Harvest of Oil Wealth
But economic growth does not automatically equal social progress. Although the Guyanese government is investing billions in infrastructure, health care and education including free university training and housing projects, inequality remains glaring. Many rural and indigenous communities feel excluded. In 2023, 60% of the population reported that their personal financial situation had not improved because of the oil boom.
Employment in the oil sector is also limited: only 4,000 direct jobs, less than half of which are filled by Guyanese. While wages in oil-related sectors have increased, with some construction workers earning up to $1,000 per month, price inflation and exploding rents in, among other places, Georgetown have actually made life more expensive for many citizens.
Corruption and mistrust additionally erode support. Despite the establishment of the Natural Resource Fund (NRF), which manages oil revenues, nearly half of Guyanese fear that wealth is not distributed fairly.
Warnings for Suriname
Suriname is on the eve of what could be its own oil revolution, with TotalEnergies and APA Corporation preparing commercial production in Block 58. It is tempting to dream of Guyanese growth rates, but the experience of our eastern neighbors contains at least as many warnings as inspiration.
1. Growth is not equality
An increase in GDP does not automatically mean a better quality of life for everyone. Without targeted reforms in education, labor market and regional development, oil wealth in Suriname also risks being concentrated in Paramaribo and among a small elite.
2. Oil creates dependence
Guyana's economy is now heavily dependent on oil - more than 60% of its GDP comes from that sector. That makes it vulnerable to fluctuating oil prices or production incidents. So Suriname must commit to economic diversification now, for example through sustainable agriculture, tourism or renewable energy.
3. Management and transparency are crucial
Although Guyana has established a dedicated fund for oil revenues, confidence in its management remains low. Suriname should learn from this skepticism by installing a robust and independent oversight mechanism, including citizen participation and public reporting on spending.
4. Indigenous and rural communities should not be forgotten
Without inclusive planning, a gap between the city and the interior is imminent. In Suriname - where the interior is historically disadvantaged - special attention must be paid to the voice, land use and habitat of indigenous and maroon communities.
5. Environmental impact is real
The environmental impacts of oil production are still difficult to assess, but pollution, oil spills and carbon emissions are real risks. Guyana faces concerns about coastal areas and ecosystems; Suriname must address these proactively with strict environmental standards and independent monitoring.
What Suriname can copy though
Not everything is a warning. There are also valuable lessons in a positive sense:
- Cash transfers and social policies can support purchasing power, if properly targeted.
- Public investment in education and healthcare can strengthen the long term.
- Local participation and substantive training for oil-related jobs can improve employment.
Oil as Opportunity and Test
Guyana has won its place on the world map thanks to oil. The economic leap is unprecedented, but the social balance remains fragile. Suriname would do well to learn from the Guyanese paradox: explosive growth but divided prosperity.
The challenge for Paramaribo is clear. Not just sign a good oil contract, but also a social contract with the population: fair, transparent and sustainable.
