U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a "complete and total" truce, aiming to end 12 days of military escalation. The announcement followed an intense diplomatic track co-led by Qatar, and was made via Trump's own platform Truth Social. On the assumption that everything works as it should, and it will, I want to congratulate both countries, Israel and Iran, for the stamina, courage and good sense to end what should be called 'THE TWELVE DAY WAR.'" Trump said.
Diplomacy through Doha
According to sources involved in the negotiations, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani managed to convince Iran to agree to a truce. Trump then informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the terms, after which Israel also agreed, provided Iran does not launch further attacks. Official responses from Tehran and Jerusalem remain outstanding for now.
Stock markets and oil react violently
De financiële markten reageerden onmiddellijk op het nieuws. Terwijl de olieprijzen kelderden, veerden de S&P 500 e-mini futures op bij de heropening van de handel. Ook de dollar verzwakte, met name ten opzichte van de Japanse yen.
Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at SMBC in Tokyo: "The tension-driven dollar buying pressure has dissipated. If the cease-fire holds, USD/JPY will move further toward yen appreciation."
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney, expressed cautious optimism: "De-escalation is significant, but questions about missing nuclear material - 400 kilograms of uranium - remain. So we are not quite there yet."
The 12-day war: a short but dangerous conflict
The confrontation began after a series of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian installations in Syria, followed by retaliatory attacks by Iran on Israeli territory. Fears of a wider war in the Middle East quickly grew, with oil infrastructure in the Gulf region also coming under pressure. Israeli government officials signaled earlier in the day that they wanted to end the operation. Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered his ministers to remain silent on the progress, Israeli Channel 12 reported.
Strategic significance: Trump as dealmaker?
Trump's role in this truce is remarkable: it is his first large-scale diplomatic intervention since his re-election in November 2024. By working with Qatar, which has good relations with both Iran and the West, Trump managed to reestablish himself as a direct negotiator. The question, however, is how sustainable this cease-fire will prove to be. Regional militias, nuclear concerns and internal pressures in both countries could undermine the truce.
Analysis: Hope or delay of escalation?
Although geopolitical pressures appear to have eased, many unresolved issues remain. For now, the truce provides breathing space for civilians, markets and diplomats. Whether this temporary calm will lead to lasting peace remains uncertain.
