Suriname bereidt zich voor op een ongekende stroom aan “petrodollars” nu later dit decennium de eerste olie uit Blok 58 wordt opgepompt. Het GranMorgu-project, een consortium van TotalEnergies (40 %), APA Corporation (40 %) en Staatsolie (20 %), beschikt over bewezen reserves van circa 760 miljoen barrels. Met de drijvende productie-eenheid (FPSO) die tot 220.000 barrels per dag kan verwerken, breekt straks een nieuw tijdperk aan.
Assuming an average production duration of twenty years and a conservative estimate of $20 billion in net revenue for the state, this means that each barrel extracted will net about $26. In the early years when many investment costs are still being recouped, Suriname will bring in about $860 million per year, rising to over US$1.5 billion around 2033 and then gradually declining to about $940 million in 2036.
Without careful management of this revenue, Suriname risks falling into the same trap as other commodity countries, during price increases the budget grows explosively, after which a decline in revenues leads to outstanding accounts. The Savings and Stabilization Fund Suriname (SSFS) must break this pattern. Part of the income in good years is set aside, so that in years with lower oil prices the treasury does not run dry. At the same time, the SSFS serves as an investment vehicle: petrodollars are channeled through strict budget rules to education, health care, agriculture, tourism and infrastructure.
Het juridische en institutionele raamwerk rondom het fonds is helder vastgelegd in wetgeving en de Staatsbegroting. De minister van Financiën ziet toe op elke storting en opname, in samenwerking met een gespecialiseerd Olie & Gas Team Suriname binnen de Belastingdienst. Deze eenheid naar voorbeeld van Nederland’s OLGA controleert of royalty’s (6,25 % van de productie), profit oil en belastingen feilloos worden afgedragen.
To offset volatility, good governance also requires that a portion of the dollars be carefully invested in projects with lasting returns, schools that enable higher education, clinics that reduce health spending, irrigation systems that double agricultural production and roads that open up remote communities. In doing so, in addition to $26 state revenues, each barrel extracted can yield much more in terms of structural growth and poverty reduction.
GranMorgu is just the beginning because future FIDs for gas fields could even take annual revenues to $2 billion. But the key to success lies not only in the size of reserves or the level of cash flows, but in Suriname's ability to manage, save and strategically invest these resources so that the petrodollar is the foundation for sustainable prosperity, including for generations to come.
The Strategic Group on Oil and Gas Policy drafted the paper Suriname 2025 on (Presidential Decision), led by Wim Dwarkasing, Karel Eckhorst, Daniel Lachman and Marten Schalkwijk and together they have painted a beautiful picture of Suriname in 2050. This requires discipline and skill. And together with five working groups from education to laws and regulations, they developed this widely supported policy framework called Suriname 2050 that can serve as a blueprint for current and future governments. In future editions, I will explain their recommendations step by step so that all of Suriname fully embraces the vision.
