Foreword
The conflict between Iran and Israel is one of the most complex rivalries in the Middle East, with far-reaching implications for regional and global geopolitics. This three-part series provides factual and systematic analysis for readers. We highlight the conflict in three eras: the Early Phase (1948-1979), the Escalation Period (1979-2002), and the Modern Shadow War (2002-2025).
In the first article, we discussed the Early Phase, when Iran and Israel worked together as Western allies against Arab nationalism and Soviet influence. This second article analyzes the Escalation Period, in which the 1979 Iranian Revolution caused an ideological split, proxy wars emerged, and Iran's nuclear ambitions began to emerge. on regional dynamics.
Introduction
The period from 1979 to 2002 marked a radical shift in the relationship between Iran and Israel, from pragmatic cooperation to open hostility. The 1979 Iranian Revolution, which replaced the secular Pahlavi dynasty with a Shiite-Islamic regime under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, introduced an anti-Western and anti-Israeli ideology that laid the groundwork for decades of conflict. This phase featured the rise of proxy wars, the first signs of Iran's nuclear ambitions, and a growing role of intelligence services in a burgeoning shadow war. Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iraq played crucial roles in amplifying these tensions, either as allies of Iran or as adversaries who indirectly served Israel's interests. This article analyzes the origins, conflict points, intelligence, proxy groups, major powers, and military capabilities of this period, based on factual sources and an unemotional approach.
Origin and Context
The 1979 Iranian Revolution was the turning point in Iran-Israel relations. The overthrow of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of the Islamic Republic under Khomeini introduced an ideology that labeled the United States as the "Great Satan" and Israel as the "Little Satan." Khomeini's calls for the destruction of the "Zionist entity" and the liberation of Jerusalem made Israel a central enemy of the new regime. Iran's ambition to export its revolutionary model to Shiite communities in Lebanon, Iraq, and elsewhere clashed with the interests of regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, which saw Iran's ideology as a threat to its Sunni monarchy.
Geopolitically, Israel consolidated its position as a regional military power after victories in the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars, while Iran sought regional influence through proxy groups. The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), in which Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states supported Iraq against Iran, limited Iran's resources but strengthened its determination to develop asymmetric strategies. Syria, an ally of Iran, became a crucial link in Iran's regional strategy, while Saudi Arabia's anti-Iranian stance indirectly served Israel's interests.
Conflict points
1. Ideological Contradictions Khomeini's anti-Zionist rhetoric, including calls for the destruction of Israel, was at the heart of the hostility. Israel saw Iran's regime as an existential threat, especially through its support of anti-Israel groups.
2. Proxy Wars Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza brought the conflict to Israel's borders. Hezbollah's attacks in Lebanon and Hamas' actions after the First Intifada (1987) were direct challenges to Israel's security.
3. Nuclear Ambition Iran's nuclear program, started in the 1980s, became a concern for Israel in the 1990s. Cooperation with Pakistan and North Korea aroused suspicions of a weapons program, although evidence did not surface until 2002.
4. Regional Rivalries Iran's rivalry with Saudi Arabia, which supported Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war, polarized the region along Shiite-Sunni lines. Syria's alliance with Iran strengthened its corridor to Hezbollah, while Saudi Arabia's anti-Iranian stance indirectly supported Israel's position, despite the lack of formal ties.
Role of Intelligence Agencies
Israel (Mossad, AMAN, Shin Bet) Mossad began monitoring Iran as a strategic threat, with intelligence operations focused on Iran's support for Hezbollah and nuclear activities. AMAN analyzed Iran's regional strategy, while Shin Bet fought Palestinian groups in Gaza and the West Bank that received Iranian support. Cooperation with the U.S. provided crucial data on Iran's missile program.
Iran (MOIS, IRGC Quds Force) The Ministry of Intelligence and National Security (MOIS) focused on counterintelligence and tracking down Israeli agents. The IRGC's Quds Force, under figures such as Qassem Soleimani, coordinated support to proxy groups and built a regional intelligence network, with Syria as a crucial link.
Regional Intelligence Saudi Arabia's General Intelligence Service began monitoring Iran's activities in the Gulf region and Lebanon, with indirect intelligence exchange through the U.S. Syria's intelligence services supported Iran's arms smuggling to Hezbollah, which attracted Israel's attention.
Proxy Groups
Iran: Hezbollah became Iran's main proxy, with rocket attacks and suicide bombings against Israeli targets in Lebanon, such as the 1983 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Beirut. Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, supported by Iran since the First Intifada, carried out attacks. In Iraq, Iran began arming Shiite militias such as the Badr Organization, although they did not yet play a direct role against Israel.
Israel: Israel supported the South Lebanon militia (SLA) against Hezbollah, but it was ineffective and disbanded in 2000. Indirect cooperation with Kurdish groups in Iraq weakened Iran's ally Iraq, but was not a direct attack on Iran.
Regional Proxy Groups:Saudi Arabia supported Sunni groups in Lebanon against Hezbollah and funded anti-Iranian militias in Iraq after the Gulf War (1991). Syria facilitated Iran's arms smuggling to Hezbollah, while Iraq, weakened by the war, became an indirect battleground for Iran's and Saudi Arabia's rivalries.
Role of Great Powers and Regional Powers
United States: After the Iranian Revolution, Iran became an enemy of the US, with tensions such as the hostage crisis (1979-1981). The US strengthened its support for Israel with F-15 and F-16 jets, but paradoxically supplied arms to Iran through the Iran-Contra scandal (mid-1980s) to free hostages in Lebanon.
Soviet Union/Russia: The Soviet Union supported Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War, but after 1991, Russia began to approach Iran with nuclear technology and economic cooperation.
China: China provided Iran with missile technology and became a major trading partner for oil, which helped Iran resist sanctions.
Saudi Arabia: As leader of the Sunni world, Saudi Arabia supported Iraq against Iran during the Iran-Iraq War, with billions of dollars in funding. This anti-Iran stance overlapped with Israel's interests, although formal cooperation was lacking. Saudi Arabia's support for Sunni groups in Lebanon and Iraq countered Iran's proxy network.
Syria: Syria, under Hafez al-Assad, became Iran's main regional ally, facilitated arms smuggling to Hezbollah, and provided a strategic corridor. This made Syria a target for Israeli intelligence operations.
Iraq: Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, was Iran's enemy and was supported by Saudi Arabia and the US. Israel's airstrike on Iraq's Osirak reactor (1981) showed shared concerns about nuclear proliferation in the region.
Military Capacities
Iran's conventional army weakened by sanctions and the Iran-Iraq War, but the IRGC developed ballistic missiles (Shahab-1 and -2, range 300-500 km) as an asymmetric deterrent. Its air force, with aging F-4 and F-14 jets, was weak.
Israel Israel modernized its air force with F-15 and F-16 jets, which were regionally superior. Its alleged nuclear arsenal (dozens of warheads) served as a strategic deterrent. Cyber capabilities were still under development.
Regional Powers Saudi Arabia's army was modernized with U.S. F-15 jets and tanks, but played no direct role in the conflict. Syria's army, backed by the Soviet Union, was an ally of Iran, while Iraq's military capability was weakened after the Gulf War (1991).
Summary
The Escalation Period (1979-2002) transformed the Iran-Israel relationship from cooperation to hostility, driven by the Iranian Revolution and Khomeini's anti-Israel ideology. Proxy wars, with Hezbollah and Hamas as Iran's main instruments, brought the conflict to Israel's borders. Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iraq played crucial roles: Saudi Arabia countered Iran's influence, Syria strengthened Iran's corridor, and Iraq's war with Iran overlapped with Israel's interests. Great powers such as the U.S., Russia, and China played ambiguous roles, while intelligence and military capabilities prepared the shadow war.
Outlook
Article 3: Modern Shadow War (2002-2025) will analyze the current phase, in which Iran's nuclear program became a central threat, proxy wars escalated, and cyberwar added a new dimension.
