Foreword
The conflict between Iran and Israel constitutes one of the most complex and influential rivalries in the Middle East, with far-reaching implications for regional and global geopolitics. This three-part series, published in Strategic Perspectives, provides systematic and factual analysis for readers.
Origin and Context
The Modern Shadow War began in 2002 with the discovery of Iran's secret nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak by an Iranian opposition group, which set off global alarm bells. Israel viewed a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, while Iran defended its program as peaceful. The U.S. invasion of Iraq (2003) removed Iran's rival Saddam Hussein, growing Iran's influence through Shiite allies in Iraq and Syria. This strengthened Iran's "Axis of Resistance," a network of proxy groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, which challenged Israel and Western interests.
Regional dynamics played a crucial role. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), alarmed by Iran's rise, sought rapprochement with Israel, culminating in the Abraham Accords (2020) with the UAE and Bahrain, with tacit support from Saudi Arabia. Syria's role as Iran's corridor to Hezbollah ended in 2024 with the fall of Bashar al-Assad, disrupting Iran's logistical network. In June 2025, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," a series of precision strikes that struck Iran's nuclear complex in Natanz, military command centers in Tehran, and missile launch facilities, while taking out Iran's air defenses, marking a strategic shift toward direct confrontation.
Conflict points
1. Nuclear Program Iran's nuclear program was a central point of conflict. Between 2007 and 2020, Israel carried out attacks on nuclear scientists, such as Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and disrupted Natanz with the Stuxnet cyber attack (2010). Iran reached an enrichment level of 60% in 2023, close to weapons grade, and limited IAEA inspections. In 2025, the IAEA reported that Iran had enough enriched uranium for possibly nine nuclear bombs, although no weapon had been assembled. In June 2025, Israel struck Natanz with "Rampage II" missiles, disrupting uranium enrichment, killing scientists Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi and Fereydoun Abbasi.
2. Proxy Wars Iran's proxy network, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias, carried out attacks on Israel and Western targets. The Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023, and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea (2021-2025) were partly Iranian-backed. Israel neutralized Hezbollah in 2025 through targeted assassinations, including that of Hassan Nasrallah, and weakened Hamas and the Houthis through regional counterattacks.
3. Cyberwar Israel's Stuxnet virus and subsequent cyberattacks, such as the one on Iran's state broadcaster in 2025, disrupted Iran's infrastructure. Iran's cyber responses to Israeli systems were limited by Israel's technological superiority.
4. Regional Rivalries Iran's rivalry with Saudi Arabia and the UAE intensified the conflict. Saudi Arabia's war against the Houthis (2015-present) and the Abraham Accords brought Israel and Gulf states closer together, with shared concerns about Iran's nuclear program and proxies.
Role of Intelligence Agencies
- Israel (Mossad, AMAN, Unit 8200) Mossad eliminated six IRGC commanders in June 2025, including General Mohammad Bagheri, and nuclear scientists. AMAN provided intelligence for air strikes, while Unit 8200 took out Iran's air defenses with drone and cyber operations. Intelligence exchange with Saudi Arabia and the UAE grew since 2020.
- Iran (MOIS, IRGC Quds Force) The Quds Force coordinated arms smuggling to proxies, but was weakened by Israeli actions. MOIS conducted counterintelligence, while Iran's cyber attacks on Israel were limited. In June 2025, Iran claimed a hit on intelligence facilities near Tel Aviv, with minimal damage.
- Regional Intelligence Agencies Saudi Arabia and the UAE shared intelligence on Iran's activities, often through the U.S. The new Syrian government limited Iran's intelligence operations, while Iraq's intelligence supported anti-Israel militias.
Proxy Groups
- Iran Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias formed Iran's proxy network, but were largely neutralized by 2025 by Israeli operations and regional counteractions. Iran's proxy strategy, once a compensation for conventional weakness, lost clout.
- Israel Israel did not support direct proxies, but strengthened ties with Gulf states and anti-Iranian groups in Syria, backed by the Abraham Accords.
- Regional Proxy Groups Saudi Arabia and the UAE supported Sunni militias in Syria and Iraq. The Houthis, weakened by Saudi Arabia's campaign, could no longer effectively serve Iran's agenda.
Role of Great Powers and Regional Powers
- Superpowers
- United States: The US supported Israel with billions in military aid, including F-35s and cyber technology. The JCPOA (2015) tried to limit Iran's nuclear program, but its withdrawal in 2018 heightened tensions. Negotiations in Vienna stalled in 2024, and in April 2025 the U.S. issued a 60-day ultimatum to Iran for IAEA compliance, with threats of military action. In June 2025, the US prepared a Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) "bunker buster" attack against Iran's nuclear facilities, despite internal resistance.
- Russia: Russia supplied Iran with S-300 systems and drones, but its support weakened after Assad's fall in Syria. Tacit agreements with Israel on airstrikes maintained a precarious balance.
- China: China imported Iranian oil and supplied missile technology, but remained cautious about direct involvement.
- Regional Powers
- Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia's war against the Houthis and intelligence exchange with Israel strengthened the anti-Iranian axis, backed by the Abraham Accords.
- UAE: The UAE shared technology and intelligence with Israel, and supported anti-Iranian initiatives in Yemen and Syria.
- Syria: The fall of Assad in 2024 and the new, more neutral government limited Iran's corridor to Hezbollah, ending Syria's role as an Iranian ally.
- Iraq: Iraq's Shiite militias, backed by Iran, lost influence, while the government took a more neutral position.
Military Capacities
- Iran Iran's ballistic missiles (Fateh, Shahab) and drones, with ranges of up to 2,000 km, were its strongest assets, as shown in attacks on Israel in 2024 and 2025. Israel's precision strikes in June 2025 destroyed dozens of launchers and storage sites, and virtually eliminated Iran's air defenses, including S-300 systems. Iran retains about 3,000 missiles, but their effectiveness is greatly reduced. The air force remains weak.
- Israel's air force, with F-35s and drones, dominated the region. The Iron Dome system intercepted Iranian missiles, despite dwindling supplies by 2025. Alleged nuclear weapons (~90 warheads) provided a strategic deterrent. Precision attacks with "Rampage II" missiles gave Israel free rein in Iran's airspace.
- Regional Powers Saudi Arabia and the UAE had modern armies but did not play a direct role. Syria's army was weakened, and Iraq's military capacity was limited by internal instability.
Summary
The Modern Shadow War (2002-2025) featured a complex struggle, with Iran's nuclear program, proxy wars, and cyber attacks as central elements. Israel's military and intelligence advantage contrasted with Iran's asymmetric strategies through its proxy network. In June 2025, Israel dealt heavy blows to Iran through precision attacks on military infrastructure, including launch facilities and storage sites, and eliminated General Hossein Salami, commander of the IRGC, among other top commanders. Iran's air defenses, including S-300 systems, were virtually eliminated, giving Israel unimpeded access to Iranian airspace. Iran's proxy groups, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias, were largely neutralized by Israeli operations and regional counteractions. Weakened and isolated, Iran now seeks a truce through friendly nations such as Qatar and Turkey, while the U.S. prepares to deploy the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) "bunker buster" against Iran's underground nuclear facilities, a move that could spark a wider war. Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE strengthened Israel's position, while Syria's new government and Iraq's more neutral stance marginalized Iran's influence. Major powers played crucial roles, with the U.S. as Israel's ally and Russia and China as Iran's weakened partners. The June 2025 escalation brought Iran to the brink of military collapse, but the risk of desperate retaliation remains.
General Conclusion of the Series
The historical analysis of the Iran-Israel conflict in three eras shows an evolution from cooperation (1948-1979) to ideological hostility (1979-2002) and a complex shadow war (2002-2025). The 1979 Iranian Revolution was the turning point, where ideology, nuclear ambitions, and proxy wars became central points of conflict. Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and formerly Syria played crucial roles, while major powers polarized the conflict. Israel's precision strikes in June 2025, which decimated Iran's top military, air defense, and proxy network, dramatically shifted the balance of power. Iran's quest for a truce through diplomatic channels contrasts with the threat of a U.S. MOP attack, which could neutralize Iran's nuclear program but trigger a regional war. Although Israel currently has the upper hand, the situation remains volatile due to Iran's remaining missiles and unpredictable responses from its allies. Diplomatic efforts through neutral mediators such as Qatar and Turkey are crucial to avoid a catastrophic escalation, but the current dynamics offer little room for optimism.
