Today, Donald Trump's ultimatum to Vladimir Putin expires, agree to a cease-fire in Ukraine, or prepare for new U.S. sanctions. European leaders consider Putin unlikely to bow out. Until now, the Russian president regularly got statements from Trump that suited him. Now that the tone is hardening, the question is whether Trump will turn his words into actions and whether he will dare introduce sanctions that will actually have an effect.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski sees the threat as a strategic opening. Russia struggles with skyrocketing inflation, mounting public debt and a heavy dependence on oil exports. A sharp drop in oil prices would hit Moscow hard financially. Yet China's support remains crucial. Without pressure on Beijing, Western sanctions remain only half effective, according to many observers.
Meanwhile, in Europe, there is a growing realization that the United States wants less and less of a commitment to the conflict. European countries are buying weapons from American producers, paying for them themselves and sending the equipment directly to Ukraine. This raises questions about the balance in the alliance because who is defending whom and, more importantly, at what cost?
After 3.5 years of war, Ukraine has recaptured parts of its territory, but Russia still occupies large chunks. The human toll is high, an estimated one million dead and wounded. Yet from the Kremlin there is a sound that Putin believes he is winning, a conviction fueled by his immediate circle.
The fundamental problem is that war is not arithmetic. It is not the amount of resources but the persistence to fight on that determines the outcome. Each new deadline raises hope for change, but at the same time leaves the uncomfortable question: is that hope realistic, or just a form of self-deception?
