Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Bitcoin has large price fluctuations and carries risks. Always do your own research. This piece is based purely on my own findings and does not constitute a call to invest and is not advice.
A day before the U.S. Independence Day, a comprehensive bill nicknamed the "Big Beautiful Bill" passed the House of Representatives by vote. The bill combines hefty spending cuts with billion-dollar spending and will add some four trillion more to the US national debt of already more than $37 trillion. Critics, including Elon Musk, fear it will mean further normalization of budget deficits and additional money creation.
In the run-up to the final vote, rumors circulated that the text would include a US capital gains tax exemption for Bitcoin transactions. However, that passage was omitted, much to the disappointment of us blockchain and crypto advocates. Still, investors in the digital currency reacted positively to the news almost immediately. Bitcoin's price briefly rose to just above $11 100 and later stabilized around $10 970, a gain of more than three percent from a week earlier. This puts the price near the highest levels since late 2023, when Bitcoin was also in a period of relatively low volatility.
The additional shortages coupled with continued stimulation of the money supply the so-called M2 money supply is still rising strongly, which is causing many investors to continue to maintain the appeal of Bitcoin, which is characterized by a fixed cap of 21 million coins. I also signal institutional buyout patterns, what we call "whale accumulation" that indicate that large investors are preparing for further price appreciation.
At the same time, three important bills are in the pipeline in the U.S. Congress that could further reshape the crypto industry. The so-called Genius Act aims to stimulate technological innovation, the Clarity Act seeks clearly defined rules for all digital assets, and a forthcoming Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act seeks to restrict the use of state-issued digital currencies to counter large-scale surveillance. Should these laws also be passed, market experts expect pension funds and corporations to add crypto assets to their balance sheets in large numbers.
Behind the scenes, the ETF revolution continues unabated. Bitcoin ETFs are now among the three highest-yielding mutual funds in the United States, as measured by management fees. And while Cardano, Avalanche, Litecoin and Dogecoin are in the queue for their own exchange-traded funds, Aptos recently applied for a dedicated Aptos ETF. That move follows two major developments within the Aptos ecosystem: the launch of the DeFi protocol Aave as the first non-EVM implementation on Aptos and the introduction of "Shelby," a high-performance Web3 storage over fiber for real-time data streams that works chain agnostic.
With five months to go in 2025 and all the big votes ahead of us, according to on-chain indicators, it is far from out of the question that Bitcoin and other crypto currencies will once again firmly appreciate in the coming weeks. For us investors, therefore, this summer has become a crucial phase in which fiscal policy, new legislation and institutional capital inflows combine to determine the course of the digital currency.
