With many people, a comparison is made from the moment the NDP handed over governance to the VHP in May 2020 to today's changeover. I leave all the scandals for another time; now it's all about the state of the handover and when a party can call itself the real "winner": because my only measure must be the condition of the economy at that change of power. At first glance, the circumstances seem identical: Moody's ratings and IMF reports played a role in both cases. However, anyone who looks at the numbers and the underlying context sees that this parallel is mostly appearance.
The financial situation in 2020
At the time of the handover in 2020, Suriname was in an acute financial crisis. The exchequer was empty and foreign currency reserves virtually depleted. The IMF confirmed that the country was effectively bankrupt; payments to creditors were not guaranteed. For the outgoing NDP government, the handover was not about political pride or visionary leadership, but about shedding a towering responsibility: "Take over," was the tenor. Nor could it cooperate with the VHP, because from 26 seats to 16, the electorate has spoken overwhelmingly.
Recovery and reforms through 2025
Five years later, the VHP government leaves the scene with an economy that the IMF and Moody's qualify as a "sound but fragile" recovery state. Structural reforms including fiscal discipline, anti-inflation measures and new transparency laws have replenished reserves and greatly reduced the budget deficit. Recent oil discoveries are also strengthening financial negotiations, although sector dependence remains a concern in my opinion.
The core of the equation
The difference between 2020 and 2025 is in the ratings, but more in the context and intent. In 2020, the transfer was primarily a form of emergency relief, based on damage control. In 2025, it is policy and sustainable recovery. Where in 2020 urgency was leading, now consolidation and future-proofing are paramount.
So who is the real "winner"?
The "winner" is evident not in the speed and manner of the transition of power, but in the state in which the country is handed over, let that be clear to all. In 2020, the NDP handed over an economically distressed state. In 2025, the VHP can rightly call itself the architect of a recovering economy.
Looking ahead to 2030
The new coalition will have the challenge of perpetuating the recovery. With oil revenues as an additional buffer, but also a potential source of vulnerability, future success will depend on further diversification and rigorous financial management. Should another transfer occur in 2030 under similar positive conditions, that government will also deserve recognition. Because in the end, society must be the winner of the election, and that can only happen with a prosperous economy, that must be the yardstick.
